The Gibraltar conundrum, explained

Gibraltar lies at the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, separated from Spain by a runway and a border

When ascending the steep inclines that lead you to the top of the ‘Rock’, one has to tread carefully. When attempting to explain the delicate, powder-keg political situation currently enshrouding Gibraltar and Spain, then so too does one have to tread very carefully indeed.

It’s all over the news, and is an issue that can divide a room down the middle in seconds. On the one hand, you have those accusing the Spanish government of sabre rattling – attempting to spook the UK and Gibraltar into… well, it’s unclear what exactly, but guilt? Certainly…

Critics argue that this is all mere posturing to distract Spaniards from the domestic problems at home, chiefly high unemployment, stagnant growth and a political slush fund scandal that threatens to topple the Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy.

On the other side of the fence are those calling for the UK to ‘hand back’ Gibraltar to Spain, having owned the territory since the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713 saw Gibraltar (and the Balearic Island of Minorca, actually) ceded to the British as a sort of spoils of war. Isn’t it time, they argue, for such antiquated, outdated ideas of imperialism to be banished, once and for all?

There are two problems with that. Firstly, Gibraltarians have consistently and overwhelmingly voted to remain a UK protectorate. If that’s what the people want, the British argue, then that’s what they should get. Secondly, Spain has two overseas enclaves just across the water in Morocco. If they want Gibraltar handed back, then they should be prepared to do likewise with Ceuta and Melilla.

Both scenarios are unlikely, and despite international debate in the media revolving largely around these issues, such discussions miss the point.

Spain’s grievance is what it calls the destruction of Spanish waters by the Gibraltar authorities, who are building an artificial reef just offshore in an attempt to improve fishing standards for their fleet. Spain feels that such a move is blocking its own fishing boats.

In response, Spain has stepped up border checks, creating long delays in sweltering heat for the thousands of Gibraltarians, Spaniards, expats and tourists who cross the border each day. Spain’s Foreign Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, has even suggested that they could impose a €50 fee to cross the border, prompting fears that a blockade could be in the offing, much like the one saw during Franco’s reign.

The minister has even hinted that the Spanish government may consider closing its airspace to flights heading to and from Gibraltar, and looking at a law change that could seriously damage Gibraltar’s status as a good place to operate online gaming companies.

So far, though, it has all been rhetoric, bluster and smokescreen. To give him his due, William Hague, UK Foreign Secretary, has remained calm yet resolute, with David Cameron also stating that the UK will only respond to direct action, not empty words.

Both countries are EU and NATO members, so it is unlikely that either side would jeopardise the harmonious relationships that are required for such treaties to work.

For now, expect more sabre rattling, the occasional long queue, and overly frightful headlines. The reality of the situation, despite the tensions, is that things are unlikely to escalate, and the status quo will be restored shortly.

A week is a long time in politics, so let’s see where everybody stands on the issue in seven days…