Can Spain leave the Cat–alone?

Will Catalan independence move a step closer this weekend?

It’s rarely advisable for a foreigner to wade into national political debate. Whatever your thoughts were on Mitt Romney or Barack Obama during the US Presidential election, they were best kept within earshot of fellow Europeans. Americans don’t take too kindly to know-it-alls from across the Pond telling them how they should vote. And that’s fair enough.

It’s a similar situation in Spain. Despite shared EU interests, you’re likely to be met with a polite ‘thanks for your opinion’ the first time you attempt to engage in politics in Spain as a ‘guiri’ (foreigner). The second time, the response is likely to be less restrained.

But the forthcoming Catalan election on Sunday, November 25, is different. While rooted in and of the people of Spain, it’s an election that could have wider ramifications for the rest of Europe. Hence, outsiders’ opinions are not just tolerated, but – for the millions of Catalans straining at the secession leash – they’re welcomed.

The Catalans’ stance is well known. Their quest for independence from Spain has never quite taken the dark turns as that of ETA-led Basque Country, but the fervour and vitriol of the people is perhaps even more stringent than that of their northern neighbours. While ETA’s acts of bloodshed and terrorism have often turned the average voter against them, the Catalans’ careful politicising and – yes – success of its all-conquering Barcelona FC have led many to wonder whether they should go it alone.

They have done before, of course. Catalans are a proud people with a rich history, culture and language. Increasingly, however, they look on Spain’s current economic woes as not their problem. In the local press, supporters of independence cite a variety of statistics and findings arguing were Catalonia to become independent it would be far wealthier than currently.

It’s true that Catalans are taxed more highly than many other Spaniards, and that much of the expenditure on infrastructure has been in other, less developed areas. That’s how nations work – by redistributing wealth and opportunity. But if Catalans don’t see themselves as Spanish, it’s a recipe for unrest.

On Sunday, the local election has been called in response to a demonstration on September 11, calling for Catalan independence. Nothing will be decided this weekend but the outcome could pave the way for a future referendum on Catalan independence.

Why is this important?

The Catalans are not the only, and certainly weren’t the first, peoples of Europe dissatisfied with current sovereignty. But they are perhaps closest to securing an outcome on their terms. This is important for the rest of Europe because, should they succeed, then other regions will perhaps try to follow suit – Bavaria in Germany; the Lega Nord in Italy; and various other parts of Spain, including Basque Country. In the UK, Scotland is due a referendum on its independence in 2014.

For Spain, this is an issue that the government is treating carefully. There are strong arguments on both sides of the divide, and everything has been brought into sharp focus because of the ongoing recession. Money talks, and is a huge factor here. So it will be interesting to see who comes out on top on Sunday.