Is Spain set to lean to the left in the forthcoming election?

Will the startling rise of Podemos lead this man to office? Polls are certainly suggesting that Spain may lean left in the election.

Given the dominance of Brexit across the world’s mainstream media, one could be forgiven for forgetting that Spaniards also have a pretty important vote coming up in a few days’ time…

On June 26 they go once again to the polls to vote in the general election, some six months after the last one – held in December – failed to identify a leading party with enough votes to take office.

Since then, incumbent Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has remained, albeit temporarily, in office, and Spain has been doing, well, just fine: the economy is stronger, tourism is up, unemployment is down, and the sun continues to shine.

But this impasse cannot last forever, and the hope is that a new government can be formed next week. As the candidates all rally around once more, polls appear to be showing that a left-wing bloc could garner enough votes to clinch a majority.

According to Reuters, the two main left-wing parties in contention, Podemos and the Socialists, are polling strongly, with forecasters expecting these two to finish second and third respectively in the voting.

While Rajoy’s People’s Party (PP) is expected to win the most votes, they are unlikely to do so in enough numbers to form a government. However, Podemos has made big gains over the past few months, and their numbers combined with those expected to go for the Socialists are likely to be strong enough to clinch it.

Since coming third in December, Podemos has since strengthened by teaming up with a former communist group to become Unidos Podemos which, combined with a solid showing from the Socialists, could see a left-wing coalition reach the absolute majority of 176 seats – which is required in order to take office.

Convincing the two parties to work together would be the next task, but given the recent political impasse, and their general similarities on a lot of issues, the actual creation of a coalition should not cause too many headaches, experts believe.

However, the two may still need to call on the backing of a few other, smaller parties in order to secure the seats they would need. This is where there may be a few sticking points because the Socialists, for one, have stated that they would not work with any of the more radical parties that back Catalan independence, for example.

For the PP, polls show that it is likely to win between 20 and 30% of the vote to secure somewhere in the region of 113 to 129 seats. Finding political allies to side with to make up the rest is likely to prove too difficult, Reuters said.