Spain prepares to go to the polls

Potential PMs (from L to R): Pablo Iglesias of Podemos, Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez, Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos (Citizens) and PP leader Mariano Rajoy.

This Sunday, Spaniards will vote in one of the country’s most important general elections in a generation.

Since the last election in 2011, which was won by the centre-right Partido Popular (People’s Party, PP), Spain’s economy has been through more peaks and troughs than a rollercoaster. The years leading up to the last election were particularly difficult for Spain: high unemployment, wasteful spending, shrinking wages and – most painful of all – a growing mistrust among many in northern Europe that Spain simply wasn’t working hard enough to pull itself out of recession…

Since 2011, there were more barren years as a second recession struck and the Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy embarked upon a harsh and widely-criticised austerity package designed to reform Spain’s labour laws and shake-up its economy.

And while Rajoy and his party have their – often very vocal – critics, the endeavours of those difficult years have begun to bear fruit, particularly in 2015. Unemployment remains high, at more than 20%, but job creation has accelerated, the vital tourism industry has enjoyed a record year and other key industries such as construction and manufacturing have also seen an upturn.

Whether this was because of or despite the PP’s policies is a case for heated arguments in bars and bodegas up and down the land. But Rajoy’s no-nonsense leadership has won as many fans as it has enemies, which makes this Sunday’s election rather intriguing indeed.

Beyond the PP await three strong rivals, each staking a rather firebrand claim to hold the key to Spain’s continued recovery. Perhaps the most charismatic of them all is Pablo Iglesias, the young left-winger from recently founded party, Podemos. Iglesias has turned heads and generated debate wherever he has gone, and it will be interesting to see how much of Spain’s youth – many having returned to Spain after an economic-induced hiatus purely because of the country’s financial upturn – vote.

Young Spaniards don’t tend to vote PP, but could the promise of a PP-Podemos coalition inspire some sort of tactical voting?

Another relatively new party is Ciudadanos (Citizens), which was formed in 2006 in Catalonia and is led by Albert Rivera – another young, charismatic leader who will hope to convince Spain’s youth that their future is better in his hands than in the wrinkled grasp of the usual suspects. Ciudadanos is polling at around 20%, which is an astonishing success, and Rivera has already ruled out the possibility of entering into a coalition – for them, it is all-or-nothing.

Perhaps the strongest challenger to Rajoy and the PP is its traditional rival, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), which is left-of-centre and headed by Pedro Sánchez, who lacks the youth of the Podemos and Ciudadanos leaders but benefits from an American-style statesmanlike aura.

Spanish political analysts put the PSOE ahead in the polls, but only just, meaning that there is likely going to be some sort of deal cut with Ciudadanos or, more likely, Podemos. Spain has something of a left-leaning tradition when times are good and/or improving, only lurching to the right when the nation feels embattled.

The feel-good factor is slowly returning to Spain, but it’s nowhere near the halcyon post-millennium days, so – despite the polling – it will be interesting to see just how Spaniards vote when facing the ballot box on Sunday. Either way, come Monday morning, the country has an exciting few years ahead of it…